Search This Blog

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Market Thought... 'rise up' (and intel)

Rise up Mr. Market, but I'm also referring to the song :)

Overall, there are some mixed signals, but the thesis remains. (For instance, as soon as we approached 1100, itchy trigger fingers took over.) The market is cheap, and looks to want to rise up.

I can see a retest of the 1150 level, but we will have to see how the trigger fingers handle themselves around 1130. (If the 10yr yield begins to break from its negative trend, I will gain more confidence in the 1150 level.)

On a side note, I wanted to mention INTC here. Too much negativity surrounding the name. The bearishness is well thought out. The 'peak margin-peak stock price' thesis is a frustrating one, and I completely disagree with this notion.

INTC stock peaked during this year prior Q1 results, when margins were around the mid/high 50s%. In Q2 margins were in the low 60s%, but the stock did not peak. So BAM!, theory disproved :)

But for all that negativity, the stock seems to really like its weekly 200SMA.

I am still a big fan of Intel. It may have peaked in 'this-or-that', but it generates a fuck load of cash, pays a better yield than the 10yr note and once people realize it is not about 'peak-this-or-that', and more about maintaining the projections it set up. Once the big boys realize this, the stock breaks from its long-term down trend and will hit 26.

No comments:

Post a Comment