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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Market Thought... ho-hum

I hate it when the markets are closed. The work day goes by so slowly. (I am so addicted to the markets, I think I have a problem :)

What a nice day. A day like today makes me question my market hedge. Look how the SP500 just took out the 14SMA.

But with this move, it is no longer oversold, and approaching overbought within an aura of negativity.

The market may move up to the 62 SMA (and other SMAs), but I do not know if there is enough umpf to power through.

My current thesis is to be range bound until we get better clarity regarding job creation. I just do not see the SP500 breaking 1150 unless that happens.

Stocks like AAPL, GOOG, GS and IBM will (imo) outperform the market based on individual performance and very inexpensive valuations. At the moment, I am waiting for the SP500 to test the 200 SMA, and then go heavy into the above names. The overall assessment I gather from the current market dynamic suggests it will happen within the mid-term. I do not think the SP500 will break it, and think it will be an awesome entry point.

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