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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Market Thought... ?

At the moment I am not getting clear signals. I keep hearing around 1100 is a strong SP500 resistance, but I do not know where this is coming from. (Literally I understand where it comes from via the charts, but the market dynamic is not the same as the previous year, let along 5 years ago, so I do not subscribe to it.)

My market thesis has not changed from before. I am waiting on the TNX to provide a hint as to what is going on. It is still stuck in resistance, and I do not think it has the juice to breach the negative trend line. Although it may breach the 62SMA in the next two weeks or so.

In the very short term, the market looks to want to consolidate a bit. The SP500 may see its 62SMA. With earnings out of the way (or an excuse to sell), and enough big boys believing 1100 is a resistance, the market may come in.

But for the mid term (ie until the end of the year), the pattern of the market should not change, unless there is a policy change from the Fed or Gov. that merits a destruction of the market uptrend.

So, if the market do decline in the next two weeks or so, I will be entering GS Jan call options. However, I am watching indicators that may suggest rate hikes very carefully, and act accordingly (as I stated in previous 'Market Thought' posts).


  1. Since your recent post about Moody's, it seems to be outperforming the market. Any thoughts?


  2. ECHO,

    Not following Moody's...

    What a call on aapl...

    Watching C and UYG... pulling hard on the big market it seem?

    Great job!!


  3. Thanks Matt. Just a reminder regarding the banks, especially C and for the ultra etf, in Jan an accounting rule will change to bring off balance sheet assets back onto the bank's balance sheets. These assets may mute upside early next year through the 2nd q.

    I don't have a good grasp of what will happen to the stocks regarding the rule change, but it is something I am cautious about.