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Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Market Thought... dollar

Article is out speaking to a 'secret talk' to replace the dollar as Oil's main currency. (article) That will hurt, but obviously the market likes it (based purely on economic equations).

However, the Australian's already started raising rates, we will too but not yet. Once the 10yr yield surpasses the 'golden ratio' SMAs, I will probably sell every long position and wait to go short the market.

My thesis on the market has not changed since the past few posts:

contradictions - speaks to when to be cautious of rates going up; volume and 'a theory on jobs'

For the record, if the dollar looses its status as the world currency, I think the emerging market economies are making a huge mistake. Seriously, it is like the child telling the parent what to do. The world needs a reserve currency. There has never been an experiment to have a 'basket of currencies' act as a world reserve. It will need to be tested first. (Will the speed of global trade allow for such a mechanism? I think it adds too many moving parts, and leaves the global economy more vulnerable.)

If this is true, I see far too many ripple effects regarding this. It will hurt America in the short-run, but we are a resource rich nation that knows how to adapt very well. Ultimately it will hurt the emerging markets the most.

They take for granted the role we have played in their level of growth. And when the Fed starts raising our rates, and the dollar starts to strengthen as our economy starts to grow, the children will be put back in their place.

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