Due to the capacity issue with Nat. Gas I was waiting for a collapse, most likely due to the physical dumping of the commodity causing the price to decline.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4-bCjF4qjwiix-HIrpp0oyX8He7JOmWDCicUi90FrBpBYEt-lJ0JYMsSMvtnzQAolMFVRuqwDuLzzoJouM8dzcbRChVWjOQCUeJzbSdSXsjie7b7ARi25rxrzD0kbwGkdqPKNJHOcv80/s400/sc.png)
With this, I will probably play CHK before Thursday. (keep in mind I am becoming a dollar bull, but Nat Gas should not be moving w/the dollar at its price is locally placed, not like crude)
Because of the massive overbought conditions, I did start to protect myself via shorts on MCO (moody's). It is very overbought, considering its crapy situation, and hitting some major resistance. IMO, with a declining market, MCO's decline will be amplified. If the market goes up, MCO's upside should be muted here.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpq5z5EW6HoC_yP7glxL7lJN-UAGQp9T36k2LiY58MwLioWjmij0XrQh-YrsRSRwrqyp9RnGUM5Mqe6XLJCmwRbsDGszFx183IqJ1jQkJsespDMJxczjCfrlQMurFqCnKPASqo93UKv5k/s400/sc-3.png)
Now, with respect to the market, I am very close to go long the 'king' dollar. (stop laughing :)
I am not crazy, just like I was not crazy shorting the hell out of oil at 140, or selling my entire portfolio except the market short the Thursday before Lehman went under.
I will enter an initial position when the UUP hits around 22.25 due to its support.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSLaemnVgPE3bGn8CER_Xm3fk0eLx2uAXxKYC0C5pNvJN7n2nr7UkolcSKZdpx5ST-6Acx_ZnWVTNT_S6eCuE5RKyoIcSx5BcZo1Alm-poyAHx63BavW5Lh2HRXV421HdIqRuwbRATa18/s400/sc-2.png)
I will then enter another position when the 10yr yield breaks the 62 sma upward, unload all call options, probably sell most of my stocks and start going short the market.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3S2I-bnnbZc2fP7Qv-kqEqcEpBuo-2agU-Bu4JzTE87E0ID__ap8ZiFKU7MvPFU97zu_3VcA8YnZTV4Ebjhl427LhW5I3u25OftrZdOu8QGjcMqiaRRfK8OQwLYFRGvHSL8y9UDkBguI/s400/sc-1.png)
If the yield decides to consolidate here, before breaking upward, I will enter a position in TBT. (but only if it consolidates at these levels)
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