some charts...

GOOG - Upon the open today, GOOG broke from the 10 SMA on the weekly and 50 SMA on the daily support. Unfortunately, with these supports breaking, there was a technical cliff to the 550 area.

I do like GOOG, despite it biting me in the ass over-and-over again, every time I trade it. I will wait for the dust to settle, and re-enter around 550.



IBM - Sitting on the daily support and oversold, I added.

Its trailing PE is 12.86 with a 15% 5yr eps growth rate. (ORCL, the IBM wannabe, has a forward PE of 12.26, while IBM has a forward PE of 11.24.)

some trades...

1. I took a hit on GOOG. Sold in the AM, and am looking to purchase March 2011 calls near 550.

2. I rotated out of Jan 2011 AAPL calls, and into April 2011 calls. (remove the accelerated time decay)

3. Adding to IBM when I can via Apr 2011 140 calls.

Market Thought... nice comeback

The market had a nice turn around today. Believe it or not, but my market thesis still has not changed from my last market thought post 'nothing new'. (Hence the political blabber, but seriously Julian Assange and the government leakers should be prosecuted for espionage :)

There were a few interesting developments since Nov 22 (the 'nothing new' post):

1. Economic data the week of 11/22 was simply kick ass. I mean kick ass!!! (Has anyone seen a chart of Monster.com, MWW? Its kick ass because of the data released.)

2. California subsidizes other state economies, just like Germany will have to do in Europe. That is Germany's cost of a unified currency. And Germany's all time high confidence indicates the Germans do not mind this position. (p.s. the Euro will not fail. Too many powerful people want it to succeed. They will figure it out. They are and have been adjusting economies accordingly to make it work. If anyone did not realize that in May 2010, they are fooling themselves.)

3. The market has been consolidating for 4 weeks, and it is approaching an interesting spring board.

The light support around 1174 is about to get complimented by the 62SMA. Not to mention a spike in the VIX, which is overbought.

A few notes:

1. IBM selling off today?!? Big boys, grow a pair. Seriously. With a trailing PE of 13, IBM will be trading at 148 by year end. That is at a MINIMUM.

2. AAPL - I read this article about Apple having a minimal presence in Brazil. Considering Brazil is my favorite Emerging Market, if true, I am pretty speechless by this. AAPL better get their ass in Brazil, ASAP. I mean, why wouldn't a company want exposure to a rapidly growing-economically healthy middle class?

WTF Wikileaks?!?

What corruption has the most recent Wikileak shed light on? Nothing.

I fail to understand what is motivating Julian Assange to release this information. After reading the points from Politico, there is nothing on here of substance to the average citizen of any country. There is only information that can cause ripples in a relationship.

I am all for transparency, especially when it is dealing with acts of theft or illegal activity that is otherwise corrosive to a functioning society. The information that Wikileaks released does not shed light on a corrosive aspect of society. As such, the documents published are irrelevant to citizens of the respective societies.

Instead the leaks were merely back room conversations and dealings which are obviously a necessity in any form of government. They do nothing but compromise those dealings.

Julian Assange, and those leaking these documents, are compromising a functioning society, especially a democratic one. And if their objective is to compromise it, they are against it.

The only people that would care for the type of information Wikileaks has released are other governments. Where is the benefit to the average citizen?

Basically, Wikileaks is conducting espionage with no value added information to society.

Do your Homework

I am listening to CNBC continuously talk about Portugal, and am simply getting too frustrated to not post about this.

Do not just listen to commentary. All qualitative commentary is bullshit, including blanket statements made on this blog. (Although I make statements because I do the homework, but when I do not state the fact to which I derive the statement, the statement should be questioned.)

The best example of this is by Brentt Arends from Market Watch who got so frustrated by an analyst Chris Whalen making bullshit statements about California that he set out an article that laid out the numbers and truth. (I wish there were more articles like this from investigative reporters, but it is just easier to provide commentary.)

Portugal is not Greece. Ireland is not Greece. Spain is in no way even in the same concept of Greece. There is no such thing as PIGS, except for the 'G'. (Ireland had a lot more flexibility than the very lightly traded CDS market projected.) IMO, Ireland did not need the bailout, but the EU did it simply to preempt and market perception.

I have personally seen Greece mascaraed as a 2nd rate country when I witnessed its 3rd world character year after year visiting the country.

Look up economies of Portugal, Ireland and Spain via the World Factbook (from the CIA website), and you can blatantly see the differences between all three. Look at their debt ratios, their revenues verse expenditures. Clear differences exist. SEE FOR YOURSELF!

Obviously there are some issues, as there are ALWAYS issues to address, but actions are being taken and the economic measures to trim waste is happening. The cost savings are very good steps in the right direction.

aerospace boom

The other day Cramer was pushing multiple American manufactures, and he mentioned the concept of an 'Aerospace Boom'. He stated that aerospace booms last for 7 years, and we are on the verge of it.

I found that statement to be interesting. But his voice is only one aspect of the 'chatter', and I needed verification before I can start taking his word seriously. (He provided no numbers to justify the claim.)

This morning I got the verification while combing the web. Both Boeing and Airbus are seeking increase production from their suppliers. Blatantly bullish verification.

Cramer mentioned HON and BA, as the American manufactures to take advantage of the boom. I agree with him as they are really good companies and stocks. However, I find ATI to be the best leveraged to this manufacturing cycle. They took a bit of a hit this quarter due to a miss, but I have been keeping them on my radar for years. (I think they are one of the best, if not the best, in speciality alloys specifically geared to aerospace, oil and defense.)

Technically, they look interesting. The set up is not overly bullish, but does merit a light entry point.


The top end resistance is around 56, while the low end is around 40. But when, I see articles indicating increase in production, I do not expect to see 40 again and expect a new trading dynamic.

At the moment ATI is being supported by the SMAs, and off the top-end resistance, it is enough to merit an initial light entry point. I say light entry because ATI is overbought, and the chart set up indicates a higher probability of it testing between 46-48. Around 46 I will get very bullish, and enter a heavier position.

Gobble Gobble

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.























Happy Trading