The last 5 years the stock was relegated to tangible book because of lawsuit liability uncertainties. Allowing it to follow rates with more of a correlation. Now the liabilities are known, and its wants to track intangible book value.
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Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Charts $bac
Its itching to run to 20. Its whispering so.
Sunday, February 15, 2015
$aapl 'secret' sauce
While I enjoy momentum whoring, I am pretty obsessive with understanding the fundamentals of the companies whose stocks I trade. Obsessive.
Leads to a seemingly endless supply of case studies, and new found knowledge.
I try to understand the management, their decisions, the company processes, the market opportunity, the market strategy, the effects of macro/micro economics on that strategy / product, competition, etc. This leads to an addiction of chatter monitoring to observe shifts in the level of understanding and market inefficiencies. (The chatter also includes some trickle of information to better understand a company's process. That's always a pleasant surprise.)
Turns out this persistent defect is great for trading. But it's also where I am a subject matter expert. For realz: out side of my money managing life, I am a industrial (if-you-fuck-up-people-get-hurt) risk manager.
Finance industry has pseudo risk management. In the technology sector the concept is non existent. Except, I think, at Apple. What is typically known as a technology company, the common understanding is that they move fast and okay to fuck up. Leads to beta releases and incremental improvements.
Not completely true with Apple. Apple originated as a fully integrated (software and hardware) technology company, at a time when computer replacement cycles were non-existent. Their goal, as is today, was to make a device that lasted a long time. This requires a grueling thought process to minimize failures. How they preform this thought process is basically a risk assessment.
Apple products last a really long time, with high resell value. This means they minimized failure points. They have been too consistent at this to attribute it to luck. There is a well defined process to which they follow, that allows them to minimize the failures.
This process can be established anywhere, but it's the context around how they minimize those failure. As Steve Jobs consistently explained, and Tim Cook continues to echo the words, it's about making the best products.
The product process starts with an idea. A small team develops the whisper to a tangible object. That object is iterated upon, with the 'risk thought process' to create an awesome product.
Once the product is finalized the 'risk thought process' is most likely applied to component construction and manufacturing. (Their level of efficiency indicates Lean Principles are applied well in advance.)
Basically, seems like Apple's secret sauce is disciple to its promise to consumers and the process to which it created to maintain that promise. Or I'm completely off base, but that's my guess.
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Market Thought... Ukraine and Greece $spy
An apparent cease fire in Ukraine and a very likely compromise with Greece between the Euro elites. Removing two powerful market detriments. (Even though Putin can not be trusted for shit, unfortunately markets simply care about perception of improvement.)
If Russia is legit with the cease fire, sanctions will soon be lifted, and the economies of Germany and France will improve. If a deal is worked out with Greece, and possibly the other peripheral economies, the EU private-public fiscal stimulus can begin. China will most likely continue their easing, as will Japan.
We will find ourselves in the midst of global fiscal stimulus, while the US economy is firing away. The largest risk to the market will become the effect of incremental rate increases from the Fed, leaving the market open to multiple contraction with continued earnings growth.
An environment where the Vix should hit its lower-end.
Saturday, February 7, 2015
$twtr momentum in fundamentals
1. New product lauches, iterating on the product. Hopefully the new on boarding technique (improved timeline for new users), coupled with improved direct messaging and video capability will improve mau/dau.
2. Better than expected revenue growth
3. Margin improvements (hopefully this will continue bringing gaap profits one step closer). Also, R&D expenses seem to be slowing.
As for @dickc, I have always been a fan of his ability to operate Twitter. My biggest frustration with him was his selling of share in the high 30s, showing a lack of conviction toward future prospects. (An investor can only see so many consecutive sells before getting annoyed.)
I wanted to get more color on Frabric, and how pervasive its become within the developer community.
Thursday, February 5, 2015
Charts $twtr
Twitter developed momentum with a bunch of product releases. TWTR is gonna battle through a series of resistances.
Wednesday, February 4, 2015
$twtr into earnings
Higher lows, pushing against a 40-41 resistence.
The stock wants to explode. Its crying to @dickc to let it run. Its legs are stifled and want to be free!
They released a slew of new offerings over the past few weeks, and the co-founders have been vocal in their position.
TWTR is a +$50B company pretending to be a $20B company. Its a stock of heavy beta. Feed the street what it wants to see, however irrelevant the metric, and the stock will explode.
Or bite the hand that feeds you, and back down to $36 we go.
Monday, February 2, 2015
Chart $fb
Looking for an oversold pop off the weekly 38sma. Or a breakdown toward 70. Either way, the channel it finds itself is makes it tradable again.
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