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Thursday, February 12, 2015

Market Thought... Ukraine and Greece $spy

An apparent cease fire in Ukraine and a very likely compromise with Greece between the Euro elites. Removing two powerful market detriments. (Even though Putin can not be trusted for shit, unfortunately markets simply care about perception of improvement.)

If Russia is legit with the cease fire, sanctions will soon be lifted, and the economies of Germany and France will improve. If a deal is worked out with Greece, and possibly the other peripheral economies, the EU private-public fiscal stimulus can begin. China will most likely continue their easing, as will Japan. 

We will find ourselves in the midst of global fiscal stimulus, while the US economy is firing away. The largest risk to the market will become the effect of incremental rate increases from the Fed, leaving the market open to multiple contraction with continued earnings growth.

An environment where the Vix should hit its lower-end.

This should lead to market highs.

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