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Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Market Thought... Now vs 1yr ago

The market is flat.

Oil and gasoline were alot higher. (But as supply reduces, prices should start approaching last year prices.)

Although oil is alot lower compared to last year, junk bonds have recovered. 

A lot of global bonds have turned negative. Those pressures appear to be pushing the 10yr yield as well. Although surprisingly, the yield was near current levels a year ago. (Yet bac was at 15 a year ago.)

The lack of credit spreads should cause bank profit pressures. The firming of oil prices should mitigate default risks, and as oil rises the majors that cut cap ex should see the profit benefit.  

Economic points of concern: the volume of transported goods. 2016 is still a lower year for rail frieght traffic.

While the BDI has recovered from early year lows, its still lower compared to a year ago.

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