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Friday, March 6, 2015

Market Thought... the $spy catalyst

On 2/26, the 'red flag' post warned for a needed market pull back, as SP500 estimates came down and the market multiple was way too high. Looks like the strong employment numbers, pushing rates higher, triggered the sell off.

With the catalyst in hand, how hard will this sell off be?

From a multiple perspective, assuming estimates remain and the trailing multiple approach 'normal levels' (aka multiple highs of previous quarters), the SP500 could see 1950-2000.

Technically, the SP500 can see mini bounces from here, with a few supports on the way down. But the daily suggest stronger support near 2000, and weekly sma support near 1950.

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