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Thursday, January 29, 2015

$xom into earnings

That crushing sound, its the stocks of companies that are pegged to commodities. Will xom endure?

I freaken hope so. (Skrew Chanos' short.)

The biggest worry with xom is the sustainability of its dividend. XOM will be dishing out some $11B dollars. Thats a huge fucking number. But a number xom should easily be able to handle given their huge free cash flow.

Going into the quarter two big headwinds are commodity price decline and the dollar conversion. (The size of this company would suggest multi-billion dollar adjustment. As was evident in Apple's quarter.)

Last time oil collapsed toward 40-50, the market was in a panic and the dividend was much smaller. 

A point of comfort for those long xom, through the 2008-2011 decline of xom, the dividend yield did not exceed 3.2%.

At current levels, xom dividend yield is already near 3%. Hence the extrapolation,  if the dividend is not lowered the stock downside should be limited with the low-end support (near 86) to be maintained. 

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