Search This Blog

Saturday, January 24, 2015

$spy Greece or Ukraine or 🙈🙉🙊

Which will the market choose?

Greek elections

Off the heels of the sizable ECB QE, Greece will finally get some benefit of a lower Euro, something it should have had 4 years ago. But that may not last long, if they leave the Euro.

The ECB will cut greek banks off, at least for 6 months. Greek inflation will spike. Drachma will decline far more than the Euro ever will. If policy shifts to enable economic growth, Greece will be better off. But it will be a very tough year. The uncertainty will be the ripple effects, finacially and politically. The ECB is ready to smooth over financial market-mechanic craziness, but the will of politicians need to remain. The idea of the Euro (and a fiscal stimulus) are desperately needed.

Ukraine flareup

Whatever bullshit cease fire that existed is officially over. Russia is still antagonizing. Sanctions will remain. Some EU chatter to remove sanction, are seemingly economically motivated. This is why a European stimulus is needed. A stimulus that can over shadow the economic contrabution of Russia. To remove the economic leverage Russia has over Europe. There are no market-mechanic issues evident here. Just the promotion of market stagnation. 

If the market chooses 🙈🙉🙊, the SP500 can push towards 2080 to 2100.

If the market chooses to cling to one of the issues the SP500 may see 2020-2040. Pending how tight the clinging is, the SP500 may push towards 2000.

No comments:

Post a Comment