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Monday, January 5, 2015

Market Technicals $spy

Getting closer to the bottom. An argument for 1940s as an extreme bottom is easy to make: 200sma on daily, 14sma on monthly, and 62sma on the weekly.

But the action looks to depend on the Vix. As the Vix approaches 36-low/mid 40s, the SP500 starts to become an all out buy. As suggested by the chart below, when removing the outliers of 2005-2007 (artificial action due to mortgage fiasco) and 2009 (the real threat to the global financial system).

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