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Friday, June 21, 2013

Market Thought... blood

The market declined, and the Vix spiked. The overlay charts started to become inverted. Fear is abound.

A longer-term view:

Those huge spikes in 2010 and 2011 were due to real systemic fears that questioned the very system we operate in. Current Vix spikes should be more in line with operational fears (around mid 20s to low/mid 30s).

Despite the tapering chatter, economic data was pretty good yesterday, despite the blah jobless claim numbers. China also started to pump liquidity to their banks.

The SP500 is near or approaching its low-end.  There is plenty of support. Ultimately the 10 year resistance has become support, and given the fundamental macro environment, break it downward is unlikely.

Improving economy, global stimulus still intact (despite the Fed chatter of shorting the date from the end of 2015 to 2014) and China maintaining its higher GDP.

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