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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

subtle Chinese stimulus

The HSBC Chinese Flash PMI came in low. This should start to get the China bears brewing. Then again, there is a reason why the Shanghai index is near a 3 year low and completely under performing the SP500. The nastiness is portrayed by the FXI.

While there has been a lot of media chatter about the consistent monetary easing that China has done over the past few 6-8 months, there has been little mention of the subtle stimulus that is being provided. Over the past few weeks information has been trickling in:

1. $74Billion on rail infrastructure this year.

2. $372Billion in 3.5years ($106B/yr) on the energy grid and pollution.

3. Leveraging corporations. (Combining the easier ability for qualified foreign investors to invest in China's capital markets, the addition of a functioning bond corporate market in China can lead to meaningful growth.)

Other chatter I have observed is far more abstract, with leaders indicating China will step up when need be. The above are hard numbers, along with the credit easing that took and is taking place.  Seems like there will not be this grandiose gesture of stimulus out of China. Instead it will be this trickle of subtle information that will allow its economy to keep humming along.

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