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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Market Thought... now what?

As I sit here trying to type away, I just keep thinking about how "Blah" things are at the moment. We are waiting for Europe to do something, so that China will do something, so that the Global GDP accelerates again.

Germany, China and US job growth have all pointed to an economic slowdown.  This has led to a continued distain for the market. Cash is at very high levels, while equity consolidation has already placed most stocks anticipating a heavy contraction of earnings. During this two/three month period we witnessed:

GS off almost 30%
AAPL off 14%
GOOG off 14%
QCOM off 20%
CAT off 30%
Brent Crude off almost 30%
WTI Crude off almost 30%

From a multiple compression perspective, the declines have been more severe. I just can not escape the feeling that the market is already reflecting a recession.

Yet, the SP500, so far, is maintaining above the 360SMA.

One of the more interesting aspects of the current market are the rails. UNP is near its highs.

Why, during the face of a global GDP slowdown is UNP still trading near its highs?

Will the Europeans really come out with a "plan" for fiscal unity? Will china do some real stimulus (even though their banks had a spike in lending, some a jump in non-performing loans)?

In the mean time, the markets seem to be in a show-me-mood.

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