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Thursday, November 17, 2011

stability - no stability, GOOG, IBM, MA, QCOM, DD, ETN, SU, FIO

Since August, the EU had time to provide stability (ignoring the two years prior to that). They got close with the amended EFSF, but fucked it up.  Will the EU be able to pull stability out of their ass?  If they do, we should see continued rallies. 

The stocks that should continue their push higher, as they have the strongest technicals, from a 'stability' rally are GOOG, IBM and MA.

GOOG should push toward the mid/high 620s.

 IBM should push toward 195.

 MA should keep pushing higher.

Obviously with credit event threat, the above does not apply.  If the markets see a shock, the following stocks will become very appealing: QCOM, DD, ETN, SU, FIO.

DD is benefiting from global growth in the BRICs, and its dividend is really appealing here. Depending on the severity of negativity, 42-44 looks super interesting.

ETN is another dividend story that is benefiting from global growth. Depending on the severity of negativity, 38-40 looks super interesting.

QCOM can see 49 to 52 if the 'credit' threat resurfaces.  I do not think it will break 49-50 given the secular growth mobile is seeing, despite an actual credit event.

SU is just cheap right now, especially with oil above 80. The 28 level is possible.

FIO did not care about the EU mess today, but with a EU induced credit event threat nothing will be safe. The fear hopefully will provides a good entry.  Ideally below 30.

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