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Thursday, August 25, 2011

a really rough couple of days

Its just amazing how life can just kick you in the nuts sometimes.  My mother-in-law passed away tonight.  She bravely battled cancer for many years. With the her husband, she raised three beautiful daughters, and was able to experience three wonderful grandchildren.  (Her third grandchild, a baby boy, was born just two days ago.)

I got the news of Steve Jobs leaving the CEO position while at the hospital. Obviously I had more important things on my mind, and didn't quite care much.  Any money manager who was not expecting this does not deserve to manage money.

The timing of the move was really really good, but I expect nothing less from Apple.  The stock is already discounting a ton (w/respect to its organic growth) thanks to the EU debt induced fear of a credit crunch.  This leave little potential damage to the down side.  Then there is the new product cycle kicking in with the iPhone 5, iCloud and MacAir.  On top of this, we should also hear about iPhone 5 availability on the China Mobile network, along with Sprint's.  This is a lot of wind at Apple's back.

Investors will react however they want to react, with all that is going on right now, I just don't care. But I will look to add to my AAPL position tomorrow (if I have a chance).

The 360 level is solid support here.  But if the general market starts acting crazy again, I can see it going to the 330 level.  Although that would suggest an ex-cash trailing PE of 10 or a trailing PE of 13.

Considering the product growth trends (and I have all the links to the current trends, just don't have the patience to post them right now) are still very much intact, I seriously doubt the market will allow it to go that low.

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