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Tuesday, August 23, 2011

heads up

With all the technical destruction, and the threat of a credit freeze, (and the +/-4% market moves it gives) I am not going to feel good about this market until the EU and global leaders take action to make progress with the sovereign debt issues and their potential bank runs. (Although, Spain was confident it did not need the ECB to buy its bond via a bloomberg article.)

I am holding back actively trading with this market until I see indications of 'EU action', and increased protection with today's rise.

I am confident, with Bernanke and Lagarde leading efforts, global leaders will not allow for a credit freeze to take place. (Hence, plenty of great opportunities out there.)  But without a plan in place the markets will be susceptible to the whims of those attacking the EU financial structural cracks.

There are just so many cracks at this point, I do not know what the EU can do without creating a short-term shock to the system.  If Italy can be attacked, France and Germany will be able to get attached if they are forced to nationalize the banks.  If that happens, I do not see how the EU can get out of this without a re-structuring.  (Unless China gets seriously involved and agrees to back-stop sovereign debt with their massive liquidity.)

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