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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

here is a 'blackswan'

North fires at South Korea.

This reminds me an awful lot of the Israel skirmish mentioned in my 'maybe, maybe not' post. This too will end as suddenly as it began, and the market will push upward.

The logical, and very sinister, person in me tells me this is purely economical.

North Korea can not wipe its own ass without China's permission, let alone fire artillery shells at a island off of South Korea. Just so happens some instability is in China's favor at the moment. Instability creates discounts in market prices, and will help China cool some of its inflation issues. (Obviously a short-term thing, but in conjunction with the Hedge Fund probes and already stated price capping on food items, it helps.)

I know this is conspiracy talk, but if China wanted/needed stability, this would not be allowed. Or severe punishment would be pushed on to the North.

Or maybe there is another reason they allowed this to happen. But if this attack was caused by a rouge aggressive state, then China's actions should be very severe.

Very curious as to China's reaction via actions, not words.


  1. I'm curious though. Would it not be more prudent for the North Koreans, if in fact they were acting at the behest of the Chinese, to launch some missiles into the ocean like they did a couple of years ago. That certainly got the west all riled up.

    Today these guys shelled south Korean positions, injured 15 civilians and killed 2 soliders.

    You certainly have a point, but I just don't see the Chinese approving something as reckless as today's action by the North.

  2. I hope the Chinese did not know. But it has been almost a full day since the attack, and the only thing out of China was a statement that amounted to the North and South should find common ground. No solid action.

    I have not read a thing about how they are mediating stability between the north and south. I have seen other countries call on China to act, but nothing that indicates they acted.

    What I find really peculiar, is that China acted more aggressively toward Japan to release a drunken fish boat captain (who was at fault for colliding into another boat in disputed waters). You would think they would be furious over such a hostile move by the north. Unless it serves their current interest.

    China is acting as if the missiles landed in the water (as you pointed out), and did nothing. That sudden change in aggressiveness gets me thinking.

    The worst case scenario is a full blown war, and sides will be chosen. The world against North Korea and China. They will lose, with north korea literally getting annihilated. Do not think China is that stupid.

    If North Korea is not supported by China, North Korea is fucked. China will need to pull the trigger against them simply to protect their border. A country w/ a military budget of $5B, against the free world will get wipeout.

    Also, from a market perspective, despite the recent correction (before this event), the market has been very stable. Even in the face of Ireland bailout talks. I do not think a missile in the water would have spooked the markets this go around. (Economically things are too strong, and the markets are way too cheap.)