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Thursday, October 9, 2014

Market Thought... From the US, with a side of freedom fries

Fear levels are pretty high. The SP500 is now at an overlay, suggesting a bottom. (Especially considering the lack of known systemic issues.)

The crazy volatility started with Europe's slow down, but that was not at all surprising. For the better part of 4-5 years many EU countries were in a depression like state, but Germany and France would pull the zone in a slightly positive growth direction. France started to fade. Putin started to act like an asshole, and bully his weaker classmate. Sanctions started. At first they were weak, but as the rebels shot down a fucking commercial jet liner, sanctions got tougher. Germany's GDP starts to fade. 

Despite the relatively weak sanctions on Russia, the real nail-in-the-coffin is oil. The markets are now providing the biggest sanction the west could ever imagine, seriously lower income. (Some estimates suggest a price of around $110 needed for state expenses.)

Lower oil is most likely the combo of slower global economic activity and the rise in the US Dollar. (A consequence of the declining global currencies.)

Not sure how long these conditions will last, but the dollar is at the high-end of its trading range.

I'm not a fan of bullies, so if this gives a bully a one-two punch, I do not mind it continuing for a few weeks. After all, the set up allows to enter a great American company, at a wonderful entry point.

The 20sma, on the monthly, has shown to be a good entry point for xom. (And lets not forget, while global GDP has slowed, its still +3%. Pretty good for a global company to benefit.)



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