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Wednesday, October 29, 2014

$fb sum of parts

1. Facebook (ad network)

Basically all revenue, which is driving the bulk of the valuation.

2. Messenger

Potential monetization: stickers, payments, selling user data 

3. Whatsapp

No potential relevant near term monetization. Most likely can be leveraged for payments and Facebook to use user data for better targeting of the ad network.

4. Instagram

Potential feed ads (including video) and user data for better targeting of the ad network. (Revenue can reach +$1b in 2-3 years.)

Best real-wold example of its potential is tumblr. Tumblr did about $100M in a short period of time since placing sponsored ads on the dashboard. 

5. Parse

Potential AWS-like revenue stream. But look negligible now, and for the next 2-3 years.

6. Oculus

Potential over the next five years. Not sure it will really move the needle until then.

7. $14.5B in cash and equivalents. 

Do the sum of the parts add to $185B for a company that derives most of the revenue from one property?

If whatsapp and Instagram are worth $20B a piece, and by the time they generate revenue they probably will be. (Not sure about Whatsapp.) But if this is the case, how do analysts reconcile twitter's valuation as they are already in the revenue stage? A disconnect exists.

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