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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Market Thought... Fed, "whenever"

Two key developments within two days:

1. China injected $81 billion in China banks. The injection is argued as a stimulus, but given the spike in swaps prior to the injection, the injection looks to be a 'maintainer of the status quo'. 

2. The Fed Statement indicated that the Fed has thrown all metrics to the wind and will raise rates, slowly, when it feels like it. 

So China keeps humming along, however poorly. And the Fed will keep the keep holding the markets hand. This suggests there maybe too much fear factored into this market. (Despite the fact that the Vix is pretty low.)

Regardless of what the Fed says, the market will now lead, and the fed will follow. The 10 yr looks to have a bottom.

The yield may listen to the fed, and channel trade. But as the US economic data imptoves, rates will rise, with or without the Fed.

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