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Friday, September 5, 2014

Market Thought... Cause Tepper said so

Tepper said on Bloomberg "the bond rally is over". (JPM issued a note the other day stating the same.)

Implications galore.

If the rally is done, rate increases are set to begin. Although structurally, rates are still in its negative trend.

A play on a bottoming yield is the $TBT. After many months of decline, in an economic situation meriting higher rates, a bottoming looks to be happening. (Although the treasury had a few fakeouts in the last few months, if one of the few major geopolitical events ease, a treasury sell off can happen.)

With rates set to rise, will the market discount the increases? For how long will the market trade with an above average premium?

Over the past few quarters the market saw an expanding multiple. Seeing higher lows and higher highs. Except for this quarter, so far. This quarter has seen a higher low, but not a higher high.

Theory: mr market is starting to anticipate a normal US rate enviornment. Now that the ECB went from uber accommodating to ridiculous accommodation, and Japan keeps pushing clown-funny accommodation, why does the Fed still need to be so accommodating?

Or the equity markets are not yet discounting anything, and its current dynamic is a consequence of geopolitical events. 

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