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Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Market Thought... confusion

There is such a huge ass divide between the heavy weights, its hard for us little people to gauge what is going on. On one hand there is the Queen of Doom talk her book on CNBC in the morning, and suffice it to say she was negative. On the other hand, we have John Paulson (who puts a lot of money where is mouth is) is touting how cheap certain equities are, and that he has no short positions on credit.

What are us schmucks to do?

I do not hesitate to short things, but I have this horrible habit of being fiercely loyal to hand that feeds me. And however cheesy this sounds, that is America. I just see too many good things out there. I don't try to justify why 'the good' is really 'not good'. I accept the good for what it is because there is usually multiple data points that support 'the good'. For instance, the jobs number is real. It is supported by the HUGE productivity being seen. Productivity that is no fucking way sustainable. I say 'no fucking way sustainable' because my company is such an example. I, and my people, have simply too much work (and its obviously fustrating). Things are simply not getting done because of the sheer volume.

I think there are a shit load of other companies like this out there. They need to hire or they run the risk of disrupting meaningful output.

Irrespective of the above, there is a trade happening that we can prepare for. The dollar strengthening is causing FCX (metals) and PBR (oil) to decline. Have been waiting for a correction in these names for some time now, and will take advantage soon.

Want FCX around 68

Want PBR around 45 (43 if we're lucky)

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