Economic exercises are always fun, and provides a fundamental thesis to trade, but trading conditions are my 'thing'. Right now, the market seems tired, and is pretty overbought. Intra-day action also suggests 'toppiness'. (Although listening to cnbc via the web, Cramer and the fast money crew pretty much feel the same way... so I ain't saying nothing new.)
But here is where I am coming from...
The SP500 is overbought, and since markets do not go straight up, a good short-term trade would be to play the consolidation.
I am expecting an ease in the overbought condition. Underlining conditions are still pretty bullish, so I would be surprised if 1000 is broken downward from this consolidation.
Another clue to the consolidation, is the Naz. It looks to have hit resistance, while being overbought.
If the Naz continues to march passed the resistance, the markets may just consolidate while moving upward. But judging my the Asian and Pre-market action, I doubt it.