Search This Blog

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

I'm back...

Looks like the 320SMA thesis was correct, via the previous 'Market Thought' posts... wicked.

So now we must question what will happen next. Since I am very tired, having just arrived back from Holiday, I can not give a straight answer just yet. The reason...

1. the 10yr yield is very oversold, which means its due for a bounce. (IMO, the yield rises, so does this market, and push the SP to 1000)

2. the Vix looks interesting. While overbought, it looks to be changing a trend. (could see the SP 500 between 950-970, if the market chooses to go negative)

Conflicting. But I still think the risk is to the down side. (limited rewards on the upside at current levels) I have not yet looked at the individual stocks to provide further psychological mood of the market just yet, and will not until tomorrow. I am far too tired at the moment.

2 comments:

  1. I thought vacations were so you could relax and refresh. Before I retired, I would look forward to the end of vacation so I could get some damn rest!

    Glad you're back, looking forward to your thoughts on the market, and hope your re-entry isn't too stressful.

    Dan

    ReplyDelete