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Monday, June 1, 2009

Shorting Oil via USO

I was going to wait to short oil until Wed morning, but then I came across this article today (article) which stated China will increase gasoline and diesel prices approximately 19cent per gallon today. That's huge.

On top of that I read another article, which give a very nice picture of US gasoline demand destruction when prices went too high. (Pretty much putting hard data to my fears of the high price in gasoline.)

Then I read that the oil in the Kurdish part of Iraq has started to flow. Even more supply to a world that is currently neck high in what it can handle via inventory. (article)

If I were in crude right now, or still in oil stocks, I would take a hard look at selling them in this strength, and wait for a pull back.

Crude has broken from fundamentals, and it has become a pure momentum play at the moment. (ie short candidate) The technicals are indicating a very much over bought condition needing to consolidate the move.

I will be looking to short it today for a decline to its consolidation (low 60s). While I would love to see Oil decline to $50/barrel, I am not expecting the momentum to simply stop unless the equity markets decide to break down.


  1. Closed the DUG trade--confused about the dollar's impact on oil price. I still believe in your thesis and I think Goldman is talking their book, but I'll look again next week.