Search This Blog

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Market efficiency on $aapl earnings?

Let's assume for a moment that the average expected trailing multiple for aapl is 12.5. (Although I can argue until I am blue in the face that aapl should have a higher multiple, regardless.)

AAPL closed at 96.45 allowing for a 10.46 trailing multiple. Assuming they meet Q1 numbers, the trailing multiple will be 10.2-10.3.

If expectations meet, the trailing eps, at the end of Q1, will be 9.39.

If the market is efficient, it is projecting a decline in eps. Assuming an efficient market, the current price is relecting the future average PE of 12.5 (or whatever). 

96.45 / E = 12.5 -- solving for E is 7.71.

The market is expecting a ~18% decline in eps.

Realistic? Who the fuck knows. 

All we really know is that the multiple is out of whack with other large-cap stocks (not just tech stocks). With that respect, there is a gross inefficiency present.

The curious development will be if aapl guides for Q2 with numbers better then the discount.

No comments:

Post a Comment