AAPL closed at 96.45 allowing for a 10.46 trailing multiple. Assuming they meet Q1 numbers, the trailing multiple will be 10.2-10.3.
If expectations meet, the trailing eps, at the end of Q1, will be 9.39.
If the market is efficient, it is projecting a decline in eps. Assuming an efficient market, the current price is relecting the future average PE of 12.5 (or whatever).
96.45 / E = 12.5 -- solving for E is 7.71.
The market is expecting a ~18% decline in eps.
Realistic? Who the fuck knows.
All we really know is that the multiple is out of whack with other large-cap stocks (not just tech stocks). With that respect, there is a gross inefficiency present.
The curious development will be if aapl guides for Q2 with numbers better then the discount.