With the default as a catalyst, the negatives are at the forefront. The Vix was not a discounter of the above fears, seems like the treasury was playing that role.
Now the vix is testing the high-end of its current trading dynamic limit.
Depending on how much negative chatter is generated, the SP500 can see 1880-1890. (Effectively wiping away the market premium, and have a trailing PE closer to the normal 17 range.)
The current geopolitical events are easy to escalate, and the uncertainty can easily drive the markets lower. But the complacency that existed a few days ago is no more.