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Thursday, May 22, 2014

Market Thought... rising multiple

Q1 earnings have not been so hot, yet the market multiple keeps rising. Find this odd, considering the lack of tightening anticipation. For almost a year the SP500 has traded with a trailing multiple north of 18. Normal range is 15-17, and we are above normal.  

The below chart simply shows the trailing PE vs the quarterly high market target.

At some point over the next 6 months the market will factor in tightening, and a multiple reversion is to be expected. (The decline in the 10yr yield is most likely playing a role in keeping the multiple elevated.)

The technicals, in relation to the vix, is a concern. At an interim basis, the vix hit a low today.

On a long-term basis, the vix is very near the lows.

Earnings estimates have earnings coming in at an impressive clip for the remainder of the year, and if they hold up, the SP500 should close the year out well north of 1900. Because of this, I'm not expecting some crazy declines from here. (Barring China issues or Russia starting WWIII.) Simply expecting some multiple contraction, in anticipation to the tightening, which can cause a 3-5% market correction.


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