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Thursday, April 3, 2014

Understanding $aapl

Apple saw about $170b in revenue in their 2013 year. Apple is about as much of a growth company as P&G. 

The play on AAPL is multiple expansion. 

The causes:

1. Continued buy backs

(Until aapl starts to trade near multiples of PG or KO or COH or other consumer branded stocks, it's multiple is too low for the type of market we are in.)

2. Institutional demand

Investors realize the product line are sustainable, and services is a sizable and sustainable business for Apple. Continued efforts in iAds, iTunes Radio and future video distribution will become evident, and when it does, the sustainability will facilitate a higher multiple. (At least to the level of msft.)

3. New product(s) categories

Alleviates the fear of the "lack of innovation" crowd. At best the new products sustain revenue or provide single digit growth. (I could be completely underestimating the wearable and consumer internet-of-things market size, and larger revenue growth is possible.)

In the mean time, its chillen. Making higher lows since the Q1report and mostlikely waiting for its next cue. (Maybe from the Q2 report or new 'invite' for product discussion.)

There is resistance at 550, 565 and then near 650.

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