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Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Market Thought... downward?

For all practical purposes the market should be going down over the next few days and the talking heads agree to that direction. Here is what I see...

The SP500 near the 150/200 SMA resistance, while overbought.

Then there is the 10yr yield approaching resistance (38SMA) while getting overbought. (The move of the yield is somewhat indicative of the market.)

Then we have key data points Thursday (payroll) and the jobs number next Friday, as the talking heads tout to be negative.

On the flip side, some key internals (via the 'either way' post) are still nice. Some have gotten somewhat overbought, others have not.

The market is bi-polar, no doubt about it. Its just that, when ever everyone expects it to act a certain way, that is when it doesn't. So if the talking heads are saying it will go down, maybe it won't.

Some light protection is a good idea, in case we do get a bi-polar move downward. But I still think this market should be trending higher.

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