Search This Blog

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Chart - $aapl

In my previous AAPL Review post I left out a weekly chart highlighting AAPL's trading dynamic around its long term trend line. I purposefully left it out because it coincidentally corresponds to the 'absurdly-low PE'. 

For a long long time, AAPL would follow the blue trend line, until in 2012. The 2012 breach (~mid 30% from trend) was met with an equivalent breakdown (~low 30% from trend) in 2013. 

After 2013, an argument can be made that a new trading dynamic formed, and this trend line is no longer valid. Even though parts of 2014 and 2015 the stock acted around it. 

If the trend line is still valid, the same thesis can apply. A 25% breach of the trend may correspond to a 25% breakdown of the trend. If that is the case, then a price of high 80s / low 90s can be expected. That would mean a single digit PE.

Does it make sense fundamentally? No.

Apple has proven it's worth as the best tech company (software and hardware) in the world.

Does the best tech stock merit a single digit multiple? No. 

The biggest question, I'm assuming the market cares about, as services (and wearables) begin to shine, is the shine enough (considering low-to-moderate iPhone growth, while the HUGE cash-flow remains)? Yes. Or so I think. But that opinion is worth about as much as this post.

No comments:

Post a Comment