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Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Market Thought... Yellen $spy is high

Equity markets are so high they are chillen with Towelie. (Youtube towelie best moment)

Trailing multiple is fairly high, but for the last few months the market did not care. Now its May, and the excuse to sell and go away comes from Yellen yelling the markets are too high! If earnings are to come in as expected, and multiple to remain relatively elevated, this still justifies an SP500 closer to 2000 than 2100.

But we know China is stimulating, as is the ROW. 2000 is not out of reach, but I would prefer to cover the spy put protection near 2040.

Special note: selling bac with the rest of the tide is stupid. Seriously, its dumb. BAC is benefiting from the higher treasury market rates. The stock is a hedge to an equities market rebalancing as easing is removed. The higher rates will give it better earnings, allowing for high-end book value to be realized.

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