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Wednesday, February 13, 2013

$aapl chart

After listening to Cook today, I got the same feeling I felt when listening to Jamie Dimon when JPM had their 'whale fiasco'. I felt re-assured.  Even though the stock is in the shitter, Cook is still one of my favorite CEOs.

Today's decline seems more of a technical selling vs what was said at the conference. AAPL saw technical resistance.

The push back will most likely see the 14SMA.  If the stock can consolidate with the SMA, it will signal a set of 'higher-lows'. The set up could lead to a firming of the stock. (This set up was displayed in Dec/Jan but the WSJ article about production cuts derailed the set up. Then the negativity was superimposed by the harsh reaction to earnings.)

Over the past two months, I've been hot/cold trading AAPL. (The nail in the coffin was the reaction to earnings.)  Its hard to tell if another fluff piece from the WSJ (or from where ever) will cause the stock to crash through the SMAs or lower supports.  (Although I have noticed a shift in tone w/the chatter. Seems like a negative chatter is balanced by positive chatter. Maybe Apple is going on a stealth offensive via the rumors.)

Side note: Not that fundamentals matter anymore, but if there really is any doubt about the power of the iPhone, and its staying power, even with the newer +4.0 Android systems, look East. iPhone tops in Japan. Softbank is doing very well, in large part, due to the iPhone against the larger competitor Domoco.  A similar situation is brewing in China, when looking at 3G user data.

(But I have to stop writing about the fundamentals of the iPhone, iPad and their very healthy re-occurring iTunes business because I will only keep convincing myself that their multiple needs to be 13-14 not 10!)

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